statistics


Murder Your Darlings (or: Why I’ll Never Be a Serious 40K Contender)

“In fairness, ‘The Floor is Lava’ may not be the strongest competitive build.” – Val Heffelfinger, paraphrased There is a notion in writing called “Murder Your Darlings”. Basically, what it boils down to is not to be overly precious with your own ideas. That turn of phrase you really like? That “brief” digression into 19th century British Colonial diplomacy (this is sadly a real example)? If they don’t belong, get rid of them. Something that doesn’t serve the goal of your writing – to be clear, to convey information, etc. has to go, whether you like it or not. I tell my students to do this. I force myself to do this. But I won’t do this for my 40K armies – and that, more than anything else, is why I’m not good at competitive 40K. Let’s talk about Adam Abramowicz for a bit – this year’s “motivating example” for a lot of my thoughts on competitive 40K. For those of you not following Warzone

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2018 NOVA Open Invitational Bracket Benchmarks

So the 2018 NOVA Open Invitational is coming up, and there’s a bracket at https://challonge.com/NOVAinvite18 . Predictions based on brackets are always interesting, because they both give you the chance to source a wide range of predictions (there are 110 now) and they let everyone include whatever soft factors they think are important. I hate making them. I’ve never been good at them (though once, by accident, I nearly won an NCAA pool) and beyond that, with as random a game as 40K is, I don’t think the failure of any given bracket actually indicates a failure of that prediction method to work. So instead, I’ve made two what I call “benchmark” brackets – brackets based of randomness that can serve as comparators to people’s actual brackets, if they’re so interested. The Random Bracket: This is the crudest of all brackets, and is spiritually the same as the randomly selected Fantasy Football team that I never actually submit because it’s against the

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